A player can be worth one amount under a production model and sign for another. I use my current DV projections to estimate the value of his future wins, and show public contract forecasts alongside that valuation. That makes the disagreement visible: how much comes from the player forecast, and how much comes from the price of buying those seasons?
What the numbers mean
Model value is the flat guaranteed contract with the same discounted value as the player’s projected production over the term shown. For the market forecast, I average the guaranteed totals from MLB Trade Rumors and FanGraphs’ Ben Clemens when both have a forecast. With one estimate, I show it and name the source. Each market figure includes the published term or the span of published terms. The tracker links to each estimate and shows the FanGraphs crowd median separately.
I price projected production at each term quoted by those sources. Where neither has a forecast, I use a stated comparison term. A change in projected WAR changes what those seasons are worth while the comparison term stays fixed.
Prices start at $11 million per win after a roster allowance: 0.5 WAR for hitters and starters, 0.2 for relievers. Net wins above two receive a 20% premium. Relievers projected above 0.8 WAR receive a 50% premium. Prices grow 3% annually, and future production is discounted at 10%. Posting fees and qualifying-offer acquisition costs are not deducted, so they can reduce the contract a club should offer below the quoted production value.
Current values
| # | Player | Pos | Age | 2027 WAR | DV value | Market forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | SP | 30 | 5.34 | 9 yrs / $371.7M 10 yrs / $391.0M | 9–10 yrs / $402.5M |
| 2 | Adrian Morejon | RP | 28 | 1.77 | 5 yrs / $110.5M 3 yrs / $73.1M | 3–5 yrs / $76M |
| 3 | Teruaki Sato | 3B | 28 | 2.50 | 5 yrs / $95.1M | 5 yrs / $95M |
| 4 | Freddy Peralta | SP | 31 | 2.44 | 5 yrs / $88.8M 4 yrs / $75.1M | 4–5 yrs / $101M |
| 5 | Ryan Jeffers | C | 30 | 2.59 | 4 yrs / $74.5M 2 yrs / $44.1M | 2–4 yrs / $52.5M |
| 6 | Trevor Rogers | SP | 29 | 2.22 | 5 yrs / $74.2M 4 yrs / $63.9M | 4–5 yrs / $109.5M |
| 7 | Seiya Suzuki | RF | 32 | 2.68 | 4 yrs / $73.8M | 4 yrs / $106.5M |
| 8 | Luis Arraez | 2B | 30 | 2.88 | 3 yrs / $71.0M 2 yrs / $51.2M | 2–3 yrs / $43M |
| 9 | Michael King | SP | 32 | 2.47 | 4 yrs / $69.8M | 4 yrs / $96M |
| 10 | Randy Arozarena | LF | 32 | 2.33 | 4 yrs / $61.5M 3 yrs / $51.3M | 3–4 yrs / $84.5M |
| 11 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 2B | 29 | 3.13 | 2 yrs / $58.5M 4 yrs / $103.0M | 2–4 yrs / $66M |
| 12 | Foster Griffin | SP | 31 | 1.84 | 3 yrs / $42.8M 1 yr / $15.2M | 1–3 yrs / $26.5M |
| 13 | Sonny Gray | SP | 37 | 2.61 | 2 yrs / $42.4M 1 yr / $24.2M | 1–2 yrs / $40M |
| 14 | Kevin Gausman | SP | 36 | 2.54 | 2 yrs / $40.4M 1 yr / $23.2M | 1–2 yrs / $30.5M |
| 15 | David Bednar | RP | 32 | 0.95 | 4 yrs / $36.2M 3 yrs / $30.5M | 3–4 yrs / $58M |
| 16 | Ian Happ | LF | 32 | 1.93 | 3 yrs / $35.9M 2 yrs / $28.1M | 2–3 yrs / $37.5M |
| 17 | Dustin May | SP | 29 | 1.90 | 2 yrs / $31.5M | 2 yrs / $30M |
| 18 | Brandon Lowe | 2B | 32 | 1.67 | 3 yrs / $28.1M 2 yrs / $22.6M | 2–3 yrs / $53.5M |
| 19 | Shota Imanaga | SP | 33 | 1.87 | 2 yrs / $27.6M | 2 yrs / $34M |
| 20 | David Peterson | SP | 31 | 1.74 | 2 yrs / $26.5M 1 yr / $14.0M | 1–2 yrs / $18.5M |
| 21 | Jack Flaherty | SP | 31 | 1.68 | 2 yrs / $25.2M | — |
| 22 | Michael Soroka | SP | 29 | 1.55 | 2 yrs / $22.6M | 2 yrs / $30M |
| 23 | Patrick Sandoval | SP | 30 | 1.48 | 2 yrs / $21.7M | — |
| 24 | J.P. Crawford | SS | 32 | 1.59 | 2 yrs / $21.4M 1 yr / $12.3M | 1–2 yrs / $12M |
| 25 | Daulton Varsho | CF | 30 | 1.57 | 2 yrs / $21.3M 1 yr / $12.1M | 1–2 yrs / $17M |
| 26 | Mauricio Dubon | 2B | 32 | 1.62 | 2 yrs / $20.5M 1 yr / $12.7M | 1–2 yrs / $13M |
| 27 | Jonathan Loaisiga | RP | 32 | 0.87 | 2 yrs / $18.0M | 2 yrs / $18.5M |
| 28 | Aroldis Chapman | RP | 39 | 1.23 | 1 yr / $17.5M | — |
| 29 | Trent Grisham | CF | 30 | 1.83 | 1 yr / $15.1M | 1 yr / $14M FanGraphs — Ben Clemens |
| 30 | Brandon Woodruff | SP | 34 | 1.42 | 1 yr / $10.4M | 1 yr / $10M FanGraphs — Ben Clemens |
| 31 | Kris Bubic | SP | 29 | 1.39 | 1 yr / $10.1M 2 yrs / $19.0M | 1–2 yrs / $23.25M |
Two different kinds of disagreement
Seiya Suzuki projects for 2.68 WAR in 2027, close to the 2.7 WAR in the Steamer forecast accompanying FanGraphs’ list. Both writers project 4 years, with an average guarantee of $106.5M. I value those 4 years at $73.8M. The similar first-year forecasts leave the price of a win and the value of the remaining seasons as places to look for the gap.
For Trevor Rogers, DV projects 2.22 WAR in 160 innings and Steamer projects 3.2 WAR in 175. The writers quote 4 and 5 years, averaging $109.5M in guaranteed money. I value Rogers at $63.9M over 4 years and $74.2M over 5. As a sensitivity check, I raised his starting WAR rate to produce 3.2 WAR at the same DV workload and carried the rate increase forward. That puts the four-year DV value at about $111 million.
The production forecast
The valuations use DV Projections through the completed 2026 season. The models combine results, contact quality, plate discipline, pitching traits, age and player history. WAR rate and workload are estimated separately. Five-year paths blend horizon-specific models with a historical aging curve and are smoothed; later seasons follow fixed age and workload curves. The tracker adds the full five seasons in its 2027–31 column, regardless of the comparison contract’s length.
For valuation I use a full-season workload: the expected playing time or the player’s recent healthy workload, whichever is larger. It describes what that production would be worth on that scale, rather than precisely predicting each future injury. Teruaki Sato retains a separate NPB translation based on a small historical comparison group; players outside DV coverage retain their separately identified baseline.
What the comparison can establish
The price scale and role premiums were calibrated against past free-agent pay. That does not establish a superior forecast of contract length, every player’s market, or a club’s willingness to pay. A reliable bat in a thin class, a pitcher’s restored health, a closing track record, an opt-out or a particular team’s needs can change the winning offer.
I test market-contract methods separately from player projections, scoring guaranteed total, annual salary and years. A method that fits ordinary contracts better but underprices the largest deals is not enough to justify replacing the market forecast. The research files report those tests and their limitations. The public estimates here remain attributed to their publishers.
The dated prediction record
The original October 29 forecasts remain unchanged. I will score those predictions against guaranteed MLB deals through Opening Day 2027, with errors in total value, annual salary and years reported separately. Players who remain under contract, accept qualifying offers, retire or do not sign guaranteed MLB deals are handled separately. Current valuations and later public forecasts do not replace the dated prediction record.