Dugout Value tools

Trade builder

Put two packages side by side. See each one’s surplus value by year, then change the assumptions you disagree with.

Model assumptions · Offseason view (2027 on) · 10% a year · edit values

Value per projected win$12M + 30% above 2 net WAR

Valuation viewOffseason view (2027 on)

Roster-spot allowance0.5 / 0.2 fWAR by role

Discount rateMarket default · 10% / year

Valuation view

Discount rate

July deadline scenario

Not available in the offseason view: the scenario adjusts rest-of-2026 value, which that view excludes.

Base dollars per WARStar premium%Premium starts afternet WARRoster-spot allowance: hitters / SPWARRoster-spot allowance: relieversWARCustom discount rate%Optional reliever premium%Custom deadline boost%October SP benchmarkWAR / 180October workload equivalent% seasonWAR-price inflation%2026 minimum salaryM

Net fWAR subtracts the role’s roster-spot allowance, then the first two wins use the base rate and additional wins receive the star premium. FanGraphs pitcher WAR already includes a leverage adjustment, so the extra reliever premium stays an optional team preference rather than a hidden assumption. The discount rate divides each season’s surplus by (1 + rate) for every year after 2026; FanGraphs uses 10%, and its prospect values already include it. The offseason view drops the rest of 2026, whose regular season is over. The deadline scenario is disabled after the regular season. During the season, it raises the market value of rest-of-2026 production and gives top starters an October rotation term above a two-WAR net benchmark. It never changes salary, option costs, future seasons, or prospect values.

How to read thisEach column is what that team gives up.

TeamSeattle Mariners send

$103.7M

Cash sent / salary retained by SEA$M

TeamPittsburgh Pirates send

$117.0M

Cash sent / salary retained by PIT$M

SEA package$103.7MRange $86.1M–$121.3M

Pittsburgh Pirates give up $13.3M more at the midpointRanges overlap

The ranges overlap, so the gap is small next to the model’s allowances. Change the assumption you trust least and see whether the order holds.

PIT package$117.0MRange $94.4M–$139.6M

Each range adds a set allowance for player risk, injury, and years of control. It isn’t a confidence interval, and it doesn’t say whether a club would agree. To test a setting, change it in the assumptions panel above.

How to read ranges →

Julio Rodríguez can block this trade. His value isn’t reduced for it.

Does the order hold? $10M per win: the Pirates give up $15.1M moreNo star premium: the Pirates give up $15.8M moreWin-now 20%: the Pirates give up $11.9M moreInclude 2026: the Pirates give up $13.3M more

Control years

Value by control year

YearSEA packageAnnual comparisonPIT package

2026—Not counted: the 2026 regular season is over—

2027$37.7M

$48.3M

2028$35.8M

$38.2M

2029$30.1M

$30.5M

Adjust valuation

Paul Skenes

3 club-control years through 2029 · 13.3 projected fWAR · $32.4M salary → $117.0M surplus value.

Range $94.4M–$139.6M around the $117.0M midpoint.

Not modeled: option years, service time / 10-and-5 rights, 40-man spot, qualifying offer.

Advanced player inputs and source breakdown

PITSPAge 24

Projection2026 regular season complete · ZiPS Trade Value Series update (2027–31)

Contract / controlFanGraphs RosterResource · role-specific arbitration estimates

Source snapshot October 18, 2026

TradeabilityNo listed protection

No clause is listed in the contract feed; confirm 10-and-5 rights before a real deal.

The rest of 2026 is excluded in the offseason view. That row stays in the table below for reference but adds nothing to value. Future arbitration starts from the full-year salary ($1.1M). Every arbitration year prices the latest full-season platform stats against the player's arbitration class. For repeat-eligible players, it also carries the previous award into a performance-based raise path; neither input controls the estimate by itself.

Player uncertainty 12 pointsTwo points add one percentage point to each side of the value range. This changes the range, never the midpoint.

fWAR by control year2026 has no remaining production. Future years start with ZiPS and the model adjustments listed below.

YearfWARPay typeSalarySurplus

ExcludedExcluded in the offseason view: rest of 2026 (would add $0.0M)

$5.3M est.platform stats$48.3M

$10.7M est.platform + prior pay$38.2M

$16.4M est.platform + prior pay$30.5M

Projected surplus$117.0M

Range $94.4M–$139.6M

Includes 3% extra long-range uncertainty

Audit trail

Changes from baseline

No changes. Settings and players match the defaults.

The CSV has one row per player-season for the players in the trade above. Its header records the snapshot date, valuation view, settings and model version.