Replay a hitter’s past contact over 81 home games. Compare his batting line with the usual effect for his batting side and watch the balls that change.
Set up the replay
Actual 2026 line .270 / .368 / .473 · 26 HR in 634 PA. He took 319 of 319 home PA at Wrigley Field, the default reference.
The replay uses 300 home PA from the selected year’s contact and keeps the other 300 at the hitter’s observed road rates.
Fenway Park vs. Wrigley Field
The sample doesn’t separate this hitter from the batting-side benchmark.
Beyond batting-side benchmark−2 runsSample range −5 to 0
Total park effect+2 runsSample range −1 to +4Batting-side benchmark +4 runs
Total effect in wOBA+3 ptsSample range −3 to +9
Batting wins equivalent+0.16Sample range −0.14 to +0.43
The 95% sample ranges come from resampling the hitter’s games. They hold the fitted model and carry setting fixed.
Expected hit counts at 600 PA. This move changes expected homers by −2.8 with adjusted carry and −1.4 with the standard trajectory.
Which balls switch?
0 HR gained and 6 lost on the full contact sample. The batting lines above scale those changes to the selected playing time.
Wrigley Field Fenway Park● HR gained◆ HR lostSelect a marker to see the play and video.Outlines connect five Savant fence measurements. Dots use direction and distance from the original play.
Ordered by extra batting runs beyond the batting-side benchmark. The sample ranges show how much that order can move.
+4 extra runs+1 to +7 sample range+3 total runs 0 to +6 sample range+0.9 expected HR
+4 extra runs+1 to +7 sample range+4 total runs +2 to +7 sample range0.0 expected HR
+3 extra runs−1 to +6 sample range+3 total runs 0 to +7 sample range0.0 expected HR
+2 extra runs−1 to +5 sample range+3 total runs 0 to +6 sample range+0.5 expected HR
+2 extra runs0 to +5 sample range+3 total runs +1 to +6 sample range0.0 expected HR
+2 extra runs−1 to +5 sample range+1 total runs −2 to +4 sample range−0.5 expected HR
+2 extra runs0 to +5 sample range+1 total runs −2 to +3 sample range+0.5 expected HR
+2 extra runs0 to +5 sample range+3 total runs 0 to +6 sample range+0.5 expected HR
+2 extra runs−1 to +5 sample range+2 total runs 0 to +5 sample range+0.5 expected HR
+2 extra runs−1 to +5 sample range+2 total runs −1 to +5 sample range+0.5 expected HR
+2 extra runs−1 to +5 sample range+3 total runs +1 to +6 sample range+0.9 expected HR
+1 extra runs−2 to +5 sample range+1 total runs −3 to +4 sample range+0.5 expected HR
+1 extra runs−2 to +4 sample range+2 total runs −1 to +5 sample range0.0 expected HR
+1 extra runs−3 to +5 sample range−1 total runs −5 to +3 sample range−1.4 expected HR
+1 extra runs−2 to +4 sample range+3 total runs 0 to +5 sample range+0.5 expected HR
+1 extra runs−2 to +3 sample range−1 total runs −3 to +2 sample range−0.5 expected HR
+1 extra runs−2 to +3 sample range+2 total runs 0 to +5 sample range0.0 expected HR
0 extra runs−3 to +3 sample range−1 total runs −4 to +2 sample range−0.9 expected HR
0 extra runs−2 to +3 sample range0 total runs −3 to +3 sample range−1.4 expected HR
0 extra runs−4 to +3 sample range+1 total runs −2 to +5 sample range−0.5 expected HR
0 extra runs−3 to +2 sample range−2 total runs −5 to +1 sample range−2.8 expected HR
0 extra runs−4 to +2 sample range+1 total runs −2 to +4 sample range+0.5 expected HR
−1 extra runs−5 to +3 sample range−2 total runs −6 to +2 sample range−2.8 expected HR
−1 extra runs−3 to +2 sample range−1 total runs −3 to +2 sample range−1.9 expected HR
−1 extra runs−4 to +2 sample range−2 total runs −5 to +1 sample range−0.9 expected HR
−1 extra runs−5 to +2 sample range−3 total runs −7 to −1 sample range−2.8 expected HR
−2 extra runs−5 to 0 sample range+2 total runs −1 to +4 sample range−2.8 expected HR
−3 extra runs−7 to 0 sample range−3 total runs −7 to 0 sample range−2.8 expected HR
−3 extra runs−8 to +1 sample range−5 total runs −9 to −1 sample range−3.3 expected HR
How to read the replay
The dropdown includes 68 hitters. I require at least 100 usable batted balls and 60 road PA in each displayed season, with enough tracked plays to reconcile both carry settings.
Both lines combine the same observed road rates with modeled home contact. I keep walk and strikeout rates fixed, and the batting-side benchmark uses league-average contact with the hitter’s mix of left- and right-handed batted balls. The gap from that benchmark is a result for this sample.
Adjusted uses typical carry for the park. Standard uses the observed trajectory. I take both home-run calls from Savant and estimate in-play odds using wall dimensions and expected carry. Those odds describe possible results at the destination. Baseball Savant Home Run Tracker.
The wOBA and batting-wins figures express the same batting runs at different scales. Batting wins divide by 9.774 runs per win. WAR also accounts for park context, baserunning, fielding, position and replacement level. FanGraphs Guts.