The default model estimates $6.5M in surplus value from 2027 onward, with a sensitivity range of $4.9M to $8.2M. The range comes from model assumptions; it is not a measured trade-price interval.
The opt-out changes the answer
Soto can leave after 2029, while the Mets can void his opt-out by adding $40 million to the final ten years of his deal. The model treats 2030–39 as one option block. With the same projections and settings, his total remaining value changes by path:
- Default player option: $6.5M through 2039.
- Soto leaves after 2029: $37.1M through 2029.
- Mets void the opt-out: −$11.9M through 2039.
These are contract scenarios rather than forecasts of either side’s decision. The model’s annual salary inputs allocate contract cost for its calculation; they do not reproduce the full cash schedule.
See the dated contract record and sources.
Open the trade builder to change the projection, contract, or model settings. Read what trade value measures.
Player database: 2026-10-18. Model version 2026-10-17.1. Public projections and contract sources are listed in Methods & data.