The default model estimates $18.2M in surplus value from 2027 onward, with a sensitivity range of $14.9M to $21.5M. The range comes from model assumptions; it is not a measured trade-price interval.
Salary offsets the projection
The model counts 17.0 projected wins through 2031, alongside $200.0M in remaining modeled salary. Judge’s production still has substantial modeled market value, but the salary absorbs most of it in the surplus calculation.
The result follows directly from the model’s use of projected wins minus salary. It is a surplus-value estimate, not a measure of Judge’s importance to the Yankees.
Open the trade builder to change the projection, contract, or model settings. Read what trade value measures.
Player database: 2026-10-18. Model version 2026-10-17.1. Public projections and contract sources are listed in Methods & data.