{
  "status": "frozen prospective prediction",
  "freeze_date": "2026-07-16",
  "data_through": "2026-07-12",
  "coordinate_system": "2026 middle-of-plate / ABS only",
  "batter": {
    "id": 678246,
    "name": "Miguel Vargas",
    "pitches": 1619
  },
  "registered_primary_attack": {
    "pitch_family": "four_seam",
    "horizontal": "outer",
    "vertical": "high",
    "spatial_adjustment_runs_per_100_pitches": -1.8755252700220906,
    "minimum_future_pitches_for_evaluation": 75
  },
  "registered_tests": [
    "After July 16, the share of pitches in the registered family/region increases versus Vargas's pre-freeze share.",
    "The increase is larger for pitchers whose demonstrated target clusters cover the region.",
    "The targeted pitch-level run value is worse for Vargas than his non-target run value, with uncertainty clustered by series.",
    "The analysis is reported even if no test succeeds."
  ],
  "neutral_predicted_run_value_per_pitch": 0.0016825985396461012,
  "holdout_calibration": {
    "coverage_advantage_multiplier": 0.33565889369228386,
    "expected_fraction_of_feasible_attack_realized": 0.4640239350892018
  },
  "eligible_pitcher_matchups": 265,
  "most_favorable_pitcher_matchups": [
    {
      "pitcher": 676083,
      "name": "Janson Junk",
      "team": "MIA",
      "pitches_to_rhh": 336,
      "raw_coverage_advantage_runs_per_100_pa": -3.25816217338331,
      "calibrated_coverage_advantage_runs_per_100_pa": -1.0936311105878889,
      "potential_first_move_attackability_runs_per_100_pa": 0.34946824474345073,
      "expected_realized_attack_gain_runs_per_100_pa": 0.16216163011457227,
      "combined_expected_plan_runs_per_100_pa": -1.2557927407024612,
      "recommended_pitch_family": "breaking",
      "recommended_target_inside_x": -0.47852569227380526,
      "recommended_target_z_norm": 0.2566276562578116,
      "recommended_weight_change": 0.050000000000000044,
      "command_dispersion": 0.9812479411694797
    },
    {
      "pitcher": 685299,
      "name": "Tanner Gordon",
      "team": "COL",
      "pitches_to_rhh": 374,
      "raw_coverage_advantage_runs_per_100_pa": -2.9849910627000122,
      "calibrated_coverage_advantage_runs_per_100_pa": -1.001938797787241,
      "potential_first_move_attackability_runs_per_100_pa": 0.2347233108948299,
      "expected_realized_attack_gain_runs_per_100_pa": 0.10891723437858508,
      "combined_expected_plan_runs_per_100_pa": -1.110856032165826,
      "recommended_pitch_family": "breaking",
      "recommended_target_inside_x": -0.3646177497404752,
      "recommended_target_z_norm": 0.3154286185029509,
      "recommended_weight_change": 0.04999999999999999,
      "command_dispersion": 1.024962033089863
    },
    {
      "pitcher": 680755,
      "name": "Braydon Fisher",
      "team": "TOR",
      "pitches_to_rhh": 361,
      "raw_coverage_advantage_runs_per_100_pa": -2.5848138934676057,
      "calibrated_coverage_advantage_runs_per_100_pa": -0.8676157718817814,
      "potential_first_move_attackability_runs_per_100_pa": 0.21641999076765817,
      "expected_realized_attack_gain_runs_per_100_pa": 0.10042405574797747,
      "combined_expected_plan_runs_per_100_pa": -0.9680398276297588,
      "recommended_pitch_family": "breaking",
      "recommended_target_inside_x": -0.32738797314013535,
      "recommended_target_z_norm": 0.34251420288246115,
      "recommended_weight_change": 0.04999999999999993,
      "command_dispersion": 1.1139573501982505
    },
    {
      "pitcher": 641793,
      "name": "Zack Littell",
      "team": "WSN",
      "pitches_to_rhh": 577,
      "raw_coverage_advantage_runs_per_100_pa": -2.2202479866240807,
      "calibrated_coverage_advantage_runs_per_100_pa": -0.7452459829127596,
      "potential_first_move_attackability_runs_per_100_pa": 0.46008630226796726,
      "expected_realized_attack_gain_runs_per_100_pa": 0.21349105645902214,
      "combined_expected_plan_runs_per_100_pa": -0.9587370393717817,
      "recommended_pitch_family": "four_seam",
      "recommended_target_inside_x": -0.10693462989428076,
      "recommended_target_z_norm": 0.7427809047249792,
      "recommended_weight_change": 0.05000000000000002,
      "command_dispersion": 1.0010826692774089
    },
    {
      "pitcher": 686973,
      "name": "Louis Varland",
      "team": "TOR",
      "pitches_to_rhh": 332,
      "raw_coverage_advantage_runs_per_100_pa": -2.3360428284262102,
      "calibrated_coverage_advantage_runs_per_100_pa": -0.7841135514073354,
      "potential_first_move_attackability_runs_per_100_pa": 0.24835453234473945,
      "expected_realized_attack_gain_runs_per_100_pa": 0.11524244739584445,
      "combined_expected_plan_runs_per_100_pa": -0.8993559988031798,
      "recommended_pitch_family": "breaking",
      "recommended_target_inside_x": -0.48881820279319155,
      "recommended_target_z_norm": 0.13506653599725632,
      "recommended_weight_change": 0.04999999999999993,
      "command_dispersion": 0.9984432311036299
    },
    {
      "pitcher": 625643,
      "name": "Reynaldo L\u00f3pez",
      "team": "ATL",
      "pitches_to_rhh": 370,
      "raw_coverage_advantage_runs_per_100_pa": -2.496368154990675,
      "calibrated_coverage_advantage_runs_per_100_pa": -0.8379281731528178,
      "potential_first_move_attackability_runs_per_100_pa": 0.12206690994079247,
      "expected_realized_attack_gain_runs_per_100_pa": 0.05664196789490573,
      "combined_expected_plan_runs_per_100_pa": -0.8945701410477235,
      "recommended_pitch_family": "four_seam",
      "recommended_target_inside_x": 0.036555433843674295,
      "recommended_target_z_norm": 0.5166694202447618,
      "recommended_weight_change": 0.050000000000000044,
      "command_dispersion": 0.9290596613585633
    },
    {
      "pitcher": 660853,
      "name": "Enyel De Los Santos",
      "team": "HOU",
      "pitches_to_rhh": 320,
      "raw_coverage_advantage_runs_per_100_pa": -2.5360421308136867,
      "calibrated_coverage_advantage_runs_per_100_pa": -0.8512450959859443,
      "potential_first_move_attackability_runs_per_100_pa": 0.055283924115679284,
      "expected_realized_attack_gain_runs_per_100_pa": 0.025653064015330324,
      "combined_expected_plan_runs_per_100_pa": -0.8768981600012746,
      "recommended_pitch_family": "four_seam",
      "recommended_target_inside_x": -0.008976071954053581,
      "recommended_target_z_norm": 0.8372679357553826,
      "recommended_weight_change": 0.04999999999999999,
      "command_dispersion": 0.9296147207017006
    },
    {
      "pitcher": 594798,
      "name": "Jacob deGrom",
      "team": "TEX",
      "pitches_to_rhh": 641,
      "raw_coverage_advantage_runs_per_100_pa": -2.264090197532207,
      "calibrated_coverage_advantage_runs_per_100_pa": -0.759962010923205,
      "potential_first_move_attackability_runs_per_100_pa": 0.14341209923459342,
      "expected_realized_attack_gain_runs_per_100_pa": 0.06654664662623914,
      "combined_expected_plan_runs_per_100_pa": -0.8265086575494441,
      "recommended_pitch_family": "four_seam",
      "recommended_target_inside_x": -0.5487201513675906,
      "recommended_target_z_norm": 0.5667786371887956,
      "recommended_weight_change": 0.04999999999999999,
      "command_dispersion": 0.7861695845047258
    },
    {
      "pitcher": 668678,
      "name": "Zac Gallen",
      "team": "ARI",
      "pitches_to_rhh": 733,
      "raw_coverage_advantage_runs_per_100_pa": -2.0275198405395076,
      "calibrated_coverage_advantage_runs_per_100_pa": -0.6805550666146469,
      "potential_first_move_attackability_runs_per_100_pa": 0.28786576229282324,
      "expected_realized_attack_gain_runs_per_100_pa": 0.1335766037965686,
      "combined_expected_plan_runs_per_100_pa": -0.8141316704112156,
      "recommended_pitch_family": "breaking",
      "recommended_target_inside_x": -0.3400605750484419,
      "recommended_target_z_norm": -0.00654189199073771,
      "recommended_weight_change": 0.050000000000000044,
      "command_dispersion": 0.9373975137828333
    },
    {
      "pitcher": 671922,
      "name": "Cade Smith",
      "team": "CLE",
      "pitches_to_rhh": 317,
      "raw_coverage_advantage_runs_per_100_pa": -2.1315365789741554,
      "calibrated_coverage_advantage_runs_per_100_pa": -0.7154692099631005,
      "potential_first_move_attackability_runs_per_100_pa": 0.21043535077249131,
      "expected_realized_attack_gain_runs_per_100_pa": 0.09764703954732792,
      "combined_expected_plan_runs_per_100_pa": -0.8131162495104284,
      "recommended_pitch_family": "four_seam",
      "recommended_target_inside_x": -0.1795798146531214,
      "recommended_target_z_norm": 0.6336815742319745,
      "recommended_weight_change": 0.050000000000000044,
      "command_dispersion": 1.0646884842930653
    },
    {
      "pitcher": 641927,
      "name": "Bailey Ober",
      "team": "MIN",
      "pitches_to_rhh": 458,
      "raw_coverage_advantage_runs_per_100_pa": -1.7097777913342591,
      "calibrated_coverage_advantage_runs_per_100_pa": -0.573902121898894,
      "potential_first_move_attackability_runs_per_100_pa": 0.4622635748594681,
      "expected_realized_attack_gain_runs_per_100_pa": 0.21450136305469222,
      "combined_expected_plan_runs_per_100_pa": -0.7884034849535863,
      "recommended_pitch_family": "four_seam",
      "recommended_target_inside_x": -0.3006246160720732,
      "recommended_target_z_norm": 0.8255227359963239,
      "recommended_weight_change": 0.04999999999999999,
      "command_dispersion": 0.9741687207559194
    },
    {
      "pitcher": 571945,
      "name": "Miles Mikolas",
      "team": "WSN",
      "pitches_to_rhh": 631,
      "raw_coverage_advantage_runs_per_100_pa": -2.153458146880742,
      "calibrated_coverage_advantage_runs_per_100_pa": -0.7228273791946256,
      "potential_first_move_attackability_runs_per_100_pa": 0.12926180052428074,
      "expected_realized_attack_gain_runs_per_100_pa": 0.0599805693359922,
      "combined_expected_plan_runs_per_100_pa": -0.7828079485306177,
      "recommended_pitch_family": "four_seam",
      "recommended_target_inside_x": -0.10098628665187752,
      "recommended_target_z_norm": 0.5556549914696444,
      "recommended_weight_change": 0.05000000000000002,
      "command_dispersion": 0.9728465744272611
    }
  ],
  "mechanisms": [
    {
      "horizontal": "inner",
      "pitches": 171,
      "swing_rate": 0.783625730994152,
      "whiff_per_swing": 0.14925373134328357,
      "called_strike_rate": 0.21052631578947367,
      "fair_contact": 52,
      "xwoba_on_contact": 0.5487307692307692,
      "run_value_per_100_pitches": 1.7257309941520476
    },
    {
      "horizontal": "middle",
      "pitches": 244,
      "swing_rate": 0.75,
      "whiff_per_swing": 0.12021857923497267,
      "called_strike_rate": 0.2459016393442623,
      "fair_contact": 85,
      "xwoba_on_contact": 0.5267647058823529,
      "run_value_per_100_pitches": -1.1426229508196726
    },
    {
      "horizontal": "outer",
      "pitches": 213,
      "swing_rate": 0.6854460093896714,
      "whiff_per_swing": 0.15753424657534246,
      "called_strike_rate": 0.3051643192488263,
      "fair_contact": 48,
      "xwoba_on_contact": 0.37024999999999997,
      "run_value_per_100_pitches": -4.818779342723004
    }
  ]
}